Forecast Polymarket's next NVIDIA CEO prices minute by minute, 4 hours ahead

$250 reward. Opens . Ends . What to build: Write a program that reads the minute-by-minute Yes prices of the 24 trading markets of Polymarket's "Next CEO of NVIDIA?" event and, at each of twelve checkpoints 4 hours apart over the 48 hours from 2026-11-13 21:00 UTC, forecasts each market's price at every minute of the next 4 hours as five quantiles, for the lowest mean pinball loss: 1st place is the best forecast, and a forecast must also beat our house forecasts to take any place, so one that beats them but ranks below 100th wins nothing. Reward bar: A reward needs a score better than the best house entry's. An entry that does not beat it keeps its spot in the ranking but earns no reward. Each bounty's rules give the exact bar.

Reward escrow

$250.00 in USDC is locked in this bounty's escrow account on Solana since 2026-11-13 08:09:01 UTC, funded from make.fun's reward wallet. Winners claim their rewards from it once the result is posted.

Full brief

Polymarket's "Next CEO of NVIDIA?" event lists a market for each person who may succeed Jensen Huang, each one's Yes price the crowd's chance, from 0 to 1, that they will. Those prices move all day, sometimes by a few tenths of a cent, sometimes by twenty points in a minute. We want a forecaster that says, honestly, where each of them will be over the next hours and how far it may move.

Context

Your entry is a program that reads one case at a time: every trading market of the event, each with its Yes price at every minute of the 72 hours up to a checkpoint, and writes, for each market and each of the 240 minutes after the checkpoint, five quantiles of that minute's price (5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95%). It runs offline in the sandbox, with no network: everything it knows is in the case it is given, and nothing calls a model.

Entries are open for 12 hours, from 2026-11-13 09:00 UTC to the deadline, 2026-11-13 21:00 UTC. Before the deadline every entry is scored on a practice of six cases cut from the event's history, 4 hours apart from 2026-11-12 06:00 UTC, and its score shows as it lands. In the final every entry runs on twelve cases the house records after the deadline, at 2026-11-13 21:00 UTC and every 4 hours after it to 2026-11-15 17:00 UTC, each case holding only the prices up to its checkpoint, so it is scored on 48 hours of prices nobody had seen when entries closed. If Polymarket decides the market first (the next CEO is named), the window ends at the minute it is seen, and only the minutes up to that minute are scored. The practice is graded on past prices anyone can fetch from Polymarket and pays nothing, so a practice score is no guide to the final.

The score is the pinball loss, in percentage points: for each quantile, how far the price fell on the wrong side of it, weighted by the level, averaged over every market, minute and quantile of every case, so a sharp forecast that is right scores near 0 and a wide or wrong one higher. Ties are broken by the faster program. A prize needs a lower loss than the best house entry: the house baseline, which says each price stays where it was with a spread that widens over time, and a forecast by a house AI model. Once the house's recording is frozen and attached, everything runs by itself, with no further admin step unless a check holds it, and each winner claims the prize in USDC on Solana: from make.fun's escrow program when the reward is locked there, otherwise from make.fun's reward wallet, as this bounty's page says.

Deliverables

  • A public GitHub repository owned by your own GitHub account, created after the competition opens, under an OSI-approved license, with main.ts (Node 22) or main.py (Python 3.13) in the repository root that writes /output/<id>.out for the case /input/<id>.in it is given
  • The AI coding-agent transcripts of the sessions that built it (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and others), uploaded with each submission

Requirements

  • Standard library plus source you vendor into the repository: nothing is installed before the program runs, and it has no network
  • Read the case in /input; two runs on the same case must write the same forecast
  • At most 8 seconds, 1 CPU and 1024 MB per case
  • At most 10 submissions a day and 10 in all; your last submission before the deadline is your final entry